Value Bets

A value bet is a selection where the model thinks the outcome is more likely than the price suggests. The tool converts every bookmaker price into an implied probability, compares it with the model probability, and lists the selections where the gap is positive.

Worked example: if the model gives a selection a 60% chance, its fair price is about 1.67. If a bookmaker offers 2.00, the price implies 50%. The ten-point gap is the edge — and it exists whether or not this particular bet wins.

Value plus trend

Selections tagged Value + Trend are ones where the recent form of the teams involved supports the same market the edge points at. It is a stricter filter than raw edge: it requires the underlying football to agree with the arithmetic.

Filters and sorting

Market

All markets, or one of home/draw/away, the goal lines from 1.5 to 3.5, BTTS, corners, cards, shots and shots on target, double chance, or team goal lines.

Overvalue

A floor on the edge. Raising it produces fewer, stronger selections.

Odds range

Bounds the price. Short-priced edges and long-shot edges behave very differently in a bankroll.

Sort

By overvalue, by start time, or by odds.

The list covers the next seven days and is laid out as a table: match details, the prediction, the model probability, the price and the bookmaker offering it, and the overvalue.

Under every row sits a Why this bet line that spells the edge out in full — for example, 79% probability against 51% implied odds, so +56% overvalue — followed by the trend that supports it and the hit rate behind that trend.