Value Bets
Selections where the model probability exceeds the probability implied by the price, filtered so recent trends support the same market.
Open Value Bets
A value bet is a selection where the model thinks the outcome is more likely than the price suggests. The tool converts every bookmaker price into an implied probability, compares it with the model probability, and lists the selections where the gap is positive.
Worked example: if the model gives a selection a 60% chance, its fair price is about 1.67. If a bookmaker offers 2.00, the price implies 50%. The ten-point gap is the edge — and it exists whether or not this particular bet wins.
Value plus trend
Selections tagged Value + Trend are ones where the recent form of the teams involved supports the same market the edge points at. It is a stricter filter than raw edge: it requires the underlying football to agree with the arithmetic.
Filters and sorting
- Market
- All markets, or one of home/draw/away, the goal lines from 1.5 to 3.5, BTTS, corners, cards, shots and shots on target, double chance, or team goal lines.
- Overvalue
- A floor on the edge. Raising it produces fewer, stronger selections.
- Odds range
- Bounds the price. Short-priced edges and long-shot edges behave very differently in a bankroll.
- Sort
- By overvalue, by start time, or by odds.
The list covers the next seven days and is laid out as a table: match details, the prediction, the model probability, the price and the bookmaker offering it, and the overvalue.
Under every row sits a Why this bet line that spells the edge out in full — for example, 79% probability against 51% implied odds, so +56% overvalue — followed by the trend that supports it and the hit rate behind that trend.
Access
Value Bets needs an account. Free accounts see two value bets per market; premium removes the cap.
Edge is a long-run claim
A positive-edge bet is still usually an underdog at longer prices. Value only shows up as profit across a large number of bets, and only if the edge estimate is honest. Prediction Accuracy publishes the tracked ROI and closing line value for flagged value bets so you can check that for yourself.
Related guides
- Odds and valueThe arithmetic behind every tool on the site: converting a price into a probability, spotting the bookmaker margin, and knowing what an edge does and does not promise.
- Prediction AccuracyThe scoreboard for the model itself: accuracy by competition and market, monthly breakdowns, and tracked value-bet ROI and closing line value.
- Dropping OddsSelections whose price has shortened inside the last hour, six hours, or day — how the comparison is made and what a drop does and does not mean.